Report shows 56 universities expect to be teaching fewer undergraduates once tuition fees rise.
Jessica Shepherd , education correspondent,
More than half of England's universities expect to be teaching fewer undergraduates next year when tuition fees rise to up to £9,000 per year, a report has revealed.
The Higher Education Funding Council for England, which distributes money to universities on behalf of the government, requested institutions' financial forecasts for the next three years.
Its analysis shows 56 universities are anticipating a drop in the number of full-time undergraduates they take from the UK or the European Union next year. On average, universities expect a 2% fall, but one institution predicts a 20% drop and five others foresee decreases of more than 10%.
Just under a quarter – 24% – expect an increase and a fifth anticipate no change.
MPs voted in December to raise tuition fees for full-time undergraduates from £3,350 a year to up to £9,000 from the autumn of 2012.
More than a third of English universities will charge £9,000 as their standard fee. The estimated average fee is £8,393, far higher than the government predicted, but this drops to £8,161 when fee waivers for less well-off students are included.
The report reveals that universities expect the number of students from outside the UK and the EU to rise between 3% and 6%. A dozen universities expect their income from overseas students' fees to go up by more than 100% in real terms between 2009-10 and 2013-14. Of these, three anticipate a more than 200% rise.
But the funding council warns that the sector continues to operate on "very fine margins" which make insitutions vulnerable to "small changes".
It says universities will be in a "financially sustainable position" in the medium term, but some "will need to generate better financial results in the longer term". No universities are close to risk of insolvency, it says.
It warns universities not to rely too heavily on predictions of student demand and says that the main financial strength of the sector "remains in a small number of institutions".
"There is no certainty over the likely level of student numbers in the future," it says. "We are aware that institutions have developed contingency plans to deal with changes in income."
Nigel Seaton, senior deputy vice-chancellor of the University of Surrey, said his institution and others were concerned that the government should fund higher education sufficiently, particularly at a time of change.
He said that while English universities were good at recruiting overseas students, they would have to do something "very special" to achieve a rise in their income of 100% or more. He said universities were increasingly operating abroad. "Our model is a joint venture in China. That is another way to increase overseas income," he said.
Link from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2011/aug/04/fewer-students-expected
The Higher Education Funding Council for England, which distributes money to universities on behalf of the government, requested institutions' financial forecasts for the next three years.
Its analysis shows 56 universities are anticipating a drop in the number of full-time undergraduates they take from the UK or the European Union next year. On average, universities expect a 2% fall, but one institution predicts a 20% drop and five others foresee decreases of more than 10%.
Just under a quarter – 24% – expect an increase and a fifth anticipate no change.
MPs voted in December to raise tuition fees for full-time undergraduates from £3,350 a year to up to £9,000 from the autumn of 2012.
More than a third of English universities will charge £9,000 as their standard fee. The estimated average fee is £8,393, far higher than the government predicted, but this drops to £8,161 when fee waivers for less well-off students are included.
The report reveals that universities expect the number of students from outside the UK and the EU to rise between 3% and 6%. A dozen universities expect their income from overseas students' fees to go up by more than 100% in real terms between 2009-10 and 2013-14. Of these, three anticipate a more than 200% rise.
But the funding council warns that the sector continues to operate on "very fine margins" which make insitutions vulnerable to "small changes".
It says universities will be in a "financially sustainable position" in the medium term, but some "will need to generate better financial results in the longer term". No universities are close to risk of insolvency, it says.
It warns universities not to rely too heavily on predictions of student demand and says that the main financial strength of the sector "remains in a small number of institutions".
"There is no certainty over the likely level of student numbers in the future," it says. "We are aware that institutions have developed contingency plans to deal with changes in income."
Nigel Seaton, senior deputy vice-chancellor of the University of Surrey, said his institution and others were concerned that the government should fund higher education sufficiently, particularly at a time of change.
He said that while English universities were good at recruiting overseas students, they would have to do something "very special" to achieve a rise in their income of 100% or more. He said universities were increasingly operating abroad. "Our model is a joint venture in China. That is another way to increase overseas income," he said.
Link from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2011/aug/04/fewer-students-expected
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